I have been watching this industry long enough to be suspicious whenever a broker discovers a thrilling new source of growth and insists, in the same breath, that it is 'transparent and fully regulated.' Plus500 has been saying exactly that about prediction markets, and the numbers explain the enthusiasm.
First-quarter 2026 revenue jumped 18% to $242 million, the company lifted its full-year outlook, and its US arm grew roughly 45% year on year to around $35 million a quarter, now some 15% of group revenue. A good chunk of that momentum rests on a product the firm only launched in February.
The Mechanics
The mechanics are worth stating plainly, because the marketing prefers not to. Through its US platform, Plus500 Futures, the company now offers event contracts supplied by Kalshi, clearing the trades itself via a full clearing membership. It had already, in December 2025, signed on as clearing partner for the CME and FanDuel prediction venture. So Plus500 is not merely selling these wagers to retail clients; it has wired itself into the plumbing of the entire ecosystem. That is either visionary positioning or a great deal of exposure to a product category that nobody has finished arguing about. Possibly both.
What's in a Name?
Here is what the celebratory press releases skate over. A prediction market lets a retail customer stake money on whether something will happen: where an index closes, what an inflation print will be, who wins what. The contract pays a dollar if you are right and nothing if you are wrong. Strip away the word 'forecast' and you are describing a bet on an outcome. European regulators have noticed the family resemblance. The chair of Cyprus's CySEC has reportedly told Brussels that these products look a great deal like binary options, the very instruments banned for EU retail traders precisely because they were judged to be closer to a casino than to investing.
The Regulatory Battlefield
The American picture is no calmer. Prediction markets in the US are currently the subject of opposing lawsuits, with the sector caught between the gambling regulators and the derivatives regulators, and Plus500 sitting squarely in the middle of that fight. The stakes are not abstract. Licensed sportsbooks in some states hand over around half their gross revenue in tax; platforms wearing the derivatives label do not. Prediction venues currently admit customers from age 18, while state gambling law typically draws the line at 21. When a product's entire commercial advantage depends on which regulator wins an argument, calling it 'fully regulated' is doing some heavy lifting.
The Legal Position Today
To be fair, and this column tries to be, Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight, the contracts are legal in the US today, and Plus500 has sensibly hired a US chief legal officer and leaned on infrastructure it acquired with Cunningham Commodities. The firm is not operating in the shadows. But 'legal today' and 'settled' are not the same word. Plus500's own growth story now depends partly on a category that could be reclassified, taxed differently, age-restricted, or curtailed depending on how courts and legislators rule. Its exposure is also indirect: it leans on Kalshi and FanDuel, and if tighter rules shrink retail access, the volumes shrink with it.
Our Assessment
None of this is to say Plus500 is doing anything improper. It is a profitable, well-capitalised operator that has spotted a fast-growing market and moved early, which is precisely what shareholders pay management to do. The point BestForex.io keeps returning to is narrower and older: this remains a house that prospers when retail customers take speculative positions, and it has simply found a fashionable new wrapper for that activity. A bet on an election or an inflation number is not rendered prudent by being cleared through tidy institutional pipes.
Our advice to traders is the same as it always is when an instrument is marketed as effortless and modern. Understand that an event contract can expire worthless, that you are speculating rather than investing, and that the regulatory ground beneath this entire product is still moving. Plus500 may well have timed this beautifully. But read it for what it is: the company has placed a large, clever bet on the business of helping other people place bets.
Editor's note and sources: Factual points drawn from Plus500 regulatory announcements (RNS) and reporting by Finance Magnates, LeapRate, Investing.com and Good Money Guide (December 2025 to June 2026). The February 2026 US prediction-markets launch via Kalshi, the December 2025 CME and FanDuel clearing partnership, the Q1 2026 results, the US revenue growth, the ongoing US litigation over prediction markets, and reported remarks by the CySEC chair comparing such products to binary options are matters of public record. Commentary and conclusions are the independent editorial opinion of BestForex.io and constitute fair comment, not financial advice.